| CROSS-DISCIPLINARY PHYSICS AND RELATED AREAS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY |
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Statistical Property and Model for the Inter-Event Time of Terrorism Attacks |
ZHU Jun-Fang1, HAN Xiao-Pu1, WANG Bing-Hong1,2 |
| 1Department of Modern Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 2Institute of Complex Adaptive Systems, Shanghai Academy of System Science, Shanghai 200093 |
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ZHU Jun-Fang, HAN Xiao-Pu, WANG Bing-Hong 2010 Chin. Phys. Lett. 27 068902 |
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Abstract The inter-event time of terrorism attack events is investigated by empirical data and model analysis. Empirical evidence shows that it follows a scale-free property. In order to understand the dynamic mechanism of such a statistical feature, an opinion dynamic model with a memory effect is proposed on a two-dimensional lattice network. The model mainly highlights the role of individual social conformity and self-affirmation psychology. An attack event occurs when the order parameter indicating the strength of public opposition opinion is smaller than a critical value. Ultimately, the model can reproduce the same statistical property as the empirical data and gives a good understanding for the possible dynamic mechanism of terrorism attacks.
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| Keywords:
89.75.Da
89.65.Ef
89.75.-k
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Received: 24 February 2010
Published: 25 May 2010
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| PACS: |
89.75.Da
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(Systems obeying scaling laws)
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89.65.Ef
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(Social organizations; anthropology ?)
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89.75.-k
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(Complex systems)
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