1College of Physical Science and Technology, Huazhong Normal University, Wuhan 430079 2Max-Planck-Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences Leipzig, 04103, Germany 3Complexity Science Center & Institute of Particle Physics, Huazhong Normal University, Wuhan 430079
Epidemic Spreading in a Multi-compartment System
GAO Zong-Mao1, GU Jiao2**, LI Wei2,3
1College of Physical Science and Technology, Huazhong Normal University, Wuhan 430079 2Max-Planck-Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences Leipzig, 04103, Germany 3Complexity Science Center & Institute of Particle Physics, Huazhong Normal University, Wuhan 430079
摘要We introduce the variant rate and white noise into the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model for epidemics, discuss the epidemic dynamics of a multiple-compartment system, and describe this system by using master equations. For both the local epidemic spreading system and the whole multiple-compartment system, we find that a threshold could be useful in forecasting when the epidemic vanishes. Furthermore, numerical simulations show that a model with the variant infection rate and white noise can improve fitting with real SARS data.
Abstract：We introduce the variant rate and white noise into the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model for epidemics, discuss the epidemic dynamics of a multiple-compartment system, and describe this system by using master equations. For both the local epidemic spreading system and the whole multiple-compartment system, we find that a threshold could be useful in forecasting when the epidemic vanishes. Furthermore, numerical simulations show that a model with the variant infection rate and white noise can improve fitting with real SARS data.
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2012, Vol. 29 
