Statistical Property and Model for the Inter-Event Time of Terrorism Attacks
ZHU Jun-Fang1, HAN Xiao-Pu1, WANG Bing-Hong1,2
1Department of Modern Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 2Institute of Complex Adaptive Systems, Shanghai Academy of System Science, Shanghai 200093
Statistical Property and Model for the Inter-Event Time of Terrorism Attacks
ZHU Jun-Fang1, HAN Xiao-Pu1, WANG Bing-Hong1,2
1Department of Modern Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 2Institute of Complex Adaptive Systems, Shanghai Academy of System Science, Shanghai 200093
The inter-event time of terrorism attack events is investigated by empirical data and model analysis. Empirical evidence shows that it follows a scale-free property. In order to understand the dynamic mechanism of such a statistical feature, an opinion dynamic model with a memory effect is proposed on a two-dimensional lattice network. The model mainly highlights the role of individual social conformity and self-affirmation psychology. An attack event occurs when the order parameter indicating the strength of public opposition opinion is smaller than a critical value. Ultimately, the model can reproduce the same statistical property as the empirical data and gives a good understanding for the possible dynamic mechanism of terrorism attacks.
The inter-event time of terrorism attack events is investigated by empirical data and model analysis. Empirical evidence shows that it follows a scale-free property. In order to understand the dynamic mechanism of such a statistical feature, an opinion dynamic model with a memory effect is proposed on a two-dimensional lattice network. The model mainly highlights the role of individual social conformity and self-affirmation psychology. An attack event occurs when the order parameter indicating the strength of public opposition opinion is smaller than a critical value. Ultimately, the model can reproduce the same statistical property as the empirical data and gives a good understanding for the possible dynamic mechanism of terrorism attacks.
ZHU Jun-Fang;HAN Xiao-Pu;WANG Bing-Hong;. Statistical Property and Model for the Inter-Event Time of Terrorism Attacks[J]. 中国物理快报, 2010, 27(6): 68902-068902.
ZHU Jun-Fang, HAN Xiao-Pu, WANG Bing-Hong,. Statistical Property and Model for the Inter-Event Time of Terrorism Attacks. Chin. Phys. Lett., 2010, 27(6): 68902-068902.
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