| CROSS-DISCIPLINARY PHYSICS AND RELATED AREAS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY |
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Epidemic Spreading in a Multi-compartment System |
| GAO Zong-Mao1, GU Jiao2**, LI Wei2,3 |
1College of Physical Science and Technology, Huazhong Normal University, Wuhan 430079
2Max-Planck-Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences Leipzig, 04103, Germany
3Complexity Science Center & Institute of Particle Physics, Huazhong Normal University, Wuhan 430079
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| Cite this article: |
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LI Wei, GU Jiao, GAO Zong-Mao 2012 Chin. Phys. Lett. 29 028902 |
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Abstract We introduce the variant rate and white noise into the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model for epidemics, discuss the epidemic dynamics of a multiple-compartment system, and describe this system by using master equations. For both the local epidemic spreading system and the whole multiple-compartment system, we find that a threshold could be useful in forecasting when the epidemic vanishes. Furthermore, numerical simulations show that a model with the variant infection rate and white noise can improve fitting with real SARS data.
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| Keywords:
89.75.-k
89.65.-s
87.10.Mn
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Received: 21 August 2011
Published: 11 March 2012
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